Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

Has the Rolex bubble finally burst? Perhaps it has

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Discussion

Tony1963

4,187 posts

149 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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GT03ROB said:
Craigybaby69 said:
What I don't get is how Rolex sell circa 800,000 watches a year but demand still outstrips supply....there must literally be 10's of millions of rolex's out there.
Since I started noticing watches, I do notice a fair few about. So they are not exactly exclusive.
Which is what he said, really.
I wonder how many Rolexes end up in collections?

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

183 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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I liquidated my collection this year, predicting the same with prices. Somehow I’m now back to three sports models confused

Sea Dweller 50th mk1
Long term keeper and worn pretty much every day. Could realistically get £10k (uplift of £1750)

Deep Sea D-Blue 12 series
Bought to see how it wears but seeing as it isn’t losing any money it’s as safe as in any bank. Been offered £13.5k (uplift of £3750)

Explorer II Polar 2019
Total punt, I expect it to get discontinued in 2021 as the 50th anniversary of the explorer comes round and if it does there’ll be a spike in values. Even if it doesn’t in the current market I’d at the minimum get my money back, perhaps £500 more than list.

So out of all those watches I still own, even if the market dropped by 20% I’d still cash out with little loss all while enjoying the watches and having a nice little hobby.

One point worth making, unlike classic cars, buy to let’s etc watches cost peanuts to run and for the most part aren’t worth life saving sums of money (although obviously can if they’re part of a large collection). The market crashing would involve hundreds of thousands of people desperately trying to get out whilst needing that £10k or whatever.

I find that set of circumstances less likely than cashing in on another property or £100k car or whatever, just my opinion however.

If all my watches were suddenly worth £1500 less than list price, well it’s been a fun ride smile

To be honest, if prices crashed I’d probably be more inclined to trade and sell more often! While prices remain static and high (and all my watches that I’ve bought in the last 3 years would be worth more today than last summer) it encourages folk to hang on to them.


Craigybaby69

474 posts

118 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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There's different ways of looking at it...the overheads on watches, art, fine wine etc are obviously lower than property and cars, but I think rolex's and pp are way more risky as an investment because they're basically a fashion item as much as anything, and fashions can change very quickly....for example what if prince Andrew had been obviously sporting a blingy submariner during that interview last week....their values would probably plummet overnight in my opinion.... social media has done a lot to help Rolex become a cool desirable brand, but it wouldn't take much for it to go the other way....maybe.

snorkel sucker

2,612 posts

190 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Prices will soften further as the momentum builds with people liquidating their assets to get back into cash in advance of the next (global) recession that's likely going to hit in 2020*.

  • Apparently.

So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
snorkel sucker said:
Prices will soften further as the momentum builds with people liquidating their assets to get back into cash in advance of the next (global) recession that's likely going to hit in 2020*.

  • Apparently.
It's scaremongering. People will still need to tell the time.

Fckitdriveon

987 posts

77 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Spoken to a few trader friends of mine in the last few days , who are probably more deeply intrenched in the market than me, I don’t hold stock for example and merely acquire as per request so other than my personal Rolex collection (which was bought to wear not flip) I m not really invested one way or another .

The consensus is , very little has changed.

Edited by Fckitdriveon on Friday 22 November 11:25

So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
Fckitdriveon said:
Spoken to a few trader friends of mine in the last few days , who are probably more deeply intrenched in the market than me, I don’t hold stock for example and merely acquire as per request so other than my personal Rolex collection (which was bought to wear not flip) I m not really invested one way or another .

The consensus is , very little and changed.
The consensus is what?

Fckitdriveon

987 posts

77 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
So said:
Fckitdriveon said:
Spoken to a few trader friends of mine in the last few days , who are probably more deeply intrenched in the market than me, I don’t hold stock for example and merely acquire as per request so other than my personal Rolex collection (which was bought to wear not flip) I m not really invested one way or another .

The consensus is , very little and changed.
The consensus is what?
Whoops. Edited .

cardigankid

8,770 posts

199 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Francois de La Rochefoucauld said:
Prime central London houses have been in decline since 2015, cars are following a similar pattern, watches will be next.
You can't compare houses with cars/watches as an investment. You have got site value and rental value to factor into property.

Cars and watches are collectors items, and are dependent on levels of wealth as well as fashions in collecting. There is clearly a level at which they are too cheap, but we are way past that point, so buying them at high prices is risky and as likely to result in a loss than a gain. You have to ask, is it worth that to you to own one? If it is, appreciation is nice but not essential, and depreciation is tough, but has no impact on your enjoyment of it. A nice Aston Martin DB5 at £150k I completely understand, but at £750k its for people with more money than sense. Flippers on the other hand are taking advantage of a distorted market, and again, dependent on there being enough buyers with more money than sense. If you want to make money out of cars you need to be a dealer, not a collector.

Wine and whisky are even more esoteric and not in my view investment grade assets at all.

Fckitdriveon

987 posts

77 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all

The only thing that will realistically scratch the surface with Rolex or PP is if the taps get turned on my the manufacturer and watches at list price become abundant . And that’s not happening anytime soon.

A recent interview with PP director said exactly the same, to paraphrase - nothing we do moving forwards will involve increasing supply.






So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
Fckitdriveon said:
The only thing that will realistically scratch the surface with Rolex or PP is if the taps get turned on my the manufacturer and watches at list price become abundant . And that’s not happening anytime soon.

A recent interview with PP director said exactly the same, to paraphrase - nothing we do moving forwards will involve increasing supply.
I'm not entirely sure. You MAY be right, but I think pricing is a bit frothy and we are in uncertain times.

BrewsterBear

1,471 posts

179 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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I'm wondering whether I should have accepted the offer of £10.5k for my Batman last week...

So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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BrewsterBear said:
I'm wondering whether I should have accepted the offer of £10.5k for my Batman last week...
I think now has to be a good time to sell TBH. Whether the froth comes off the market remains to be seen, but I don't see demand or prices being HIGHER in 6 months.

R Mutt

5,652 posts

59 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Fckitdriveon said:
Much seems to be have been made of this Watchfinder ‘sale’ It’s Absolute hogwash , they were over priced anyway so have simply reduced their prices to fall in line with the rest of the market . There’s no crisis or panic , how people are seeing it as anything else baffles me.
This.

Still 5 figures for most Sub/ GMTs on there

Crackedwinscreen

30 posts

137 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Watchfinder

Just sold a couple of pieces to them, they bid the highest in the market but had to be chased for payment...

Significant inventory + softening prices (as demonstrated by the Rolex sale) = dubious long term financial viability

So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
Crackedwinscreen said:
Watchfinder

Just sold a couple of pieces to them, they bid the highest in the market but had to be chased for payment...

Significant inventory + softening prices (as demonstrated by the Rolex sale) = dubious long term financial viability
They're owned by Richemont aren't they? I imagine they are okay financially.


don logan

3,278 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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I’ve seen them do this before, whack the price roght up, then bring them down to prices that are still a bit more than others and tell people that it’s a sale!

They don’t even seem to make sense, with an older ceramic, white dial Daytona being more expensive than the 3 NEWER ones that are in the “sale”, all have B&P so no different


harleywilma

488 posts

230 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Boring......

So

24,091 posts

209 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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harleywilma said:
Boring......
Aren't you.

-dadam02-

578 posts

56 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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So said:
I am not sure if I am yet to be proved right, but I foresaw an end to the madness happening this year. Which is why I sold my modest holding of Rolex sports models prior to Christmas last year.

I figured strong market + Christmas = best price. Brexit uncertainty in 2019 = lower price.

If the decline in values continues it will be a rare accurate prediction on my part.
Haven't prices generally gone up considerably since this time last year, so you didn't really sell at the right time did you? A BLNR was £8.5k, for example, this time last year, but £12.5k+ roughly now (most 50% increase).