Credit Suisse - Is it going to go bust, if so what happens?

Credit Suisse - Is it going to go bust, if so what happens?

Author
Discussion

Carl_Manchester

Original Poster:

10,775 posts

249 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all

If it does go pop, the implications will be far-reaching, not least for London.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/art...

Gecko1978

8,098 posts

144 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
This has been an armagedon sized rumour for about 28 months now any other truth in it

skwdenyer

13,886 posts

227 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
If it does go pop, the implications will be far-reaching, not least for London.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/art...
That statement seems to have little-to-no bearing on the issue of solvency, unless I'm missing something?

Carl_Manchester

Original Poster:

10,775 posts

249 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
This has been an armagedon sized rumour for about 28 months now any other truth in it
Truth? this is financial services smile

I think its fair to say that things are not looking better than they were. The high-yield deposit campaign has slowed the bleeding but ....


Four Litre

1,737 posts

179 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
As others have said this has been a rumour / on the cards for quite some time now. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they went under as I think loss of confidence will eventually finish them off.

Iamnotkloot

1,082 posts

134 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
If it does go pop, the implications will be far-reaching, not least for London.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/art...
Well, the share price doesn't look too clever, so investors are running away:

skwdenyer

13,886 posts

227 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
Gecko1978 said:
This has been an armagedon sized rumour for about 28 months now any other truth in it
Truth? this is financial services smile

I think its fair to say that things are not looking better than they were. The high-yield deposit campaign has slowed the bleeding but ....

Is that graph being driven by knowledge, or sentiment? I appreciate that, eventually, rumours become executioners if not scotched.

JagLover

39,886 posts

222 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
No knowledge of CS, but if anyone wants a good read of the inside story of the last meltdown then this is very good.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Too-Big-Fail-Inside-Battl...

PushedDover

4,909 posts

40 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
but to answer the OP, does anyone know what / how to explain to non-knowledgable like me "so what happens?"

Timothy Bucktu

14,269 posts

187 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Neil McCoy-Ward talked about this here https://youtu.be/u2BtAJrvHqM

Note: He's a little too direct and to the point for some on PH to be able to handle I suspect. But he has some interesting insights into the financial world. Take it with a pinch of salt and come to your own conclusions.

Catastrophic Poo

3,019 posts

173 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Timothy Bucktu said:
Neil McCoy-Ward talked about this here https://youtu.be/u2BtAJrvHqM

Note: He's a little too direct and to the point for some on PH to be able to handle I suspect. But he has some interesting insights into the financial world. Take it with a pinch of salt and come to your own conclusions.
He does have somewhat fringe views, and said there would be a 40% drop in property values 3 years ago.

Sells courses though, so thats a thing biggrin

Catastrophic Poo

3,019 posts

173 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
As others have said this has been a rumour / on the cards for quite some time now. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they went under as I think loss of confidence will eventually finish them off.
I expect that would be the way, if it were to happen.

I doubt it’d be through their usual results and going oh, btw were fked.

Still, if it did I suppose we’d all learn about systemic risk again hehe

isaldiri

16,253 posts

155 months

Thursday 9th March
quotequote all
Four Litre said:
As others have said this has been a rumour / on the cards for quite some time now. Wouldn't be at all surprised if they went under as I think loss of confidence will eventually finish them off.
The OP is only about 3-4 months late. the 'CS going under thing' was something that was quite intensively discussed in capital markets at around Nov to early Dec. They have sold off bits of the money making stuff and generally did a decent chunk of capital raising - currently there's nowhere close to the same stresses seen on CS credit compared to the end of last year.

Gecko1978

8,098 posts

144 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Not credit Suisse but Silicon Valley Bank share price fell 61% yesterday a fall in mkt cap of 81bn in 1 day. Makes the bank bailouts in the UK seem tiny. An SVB have not asked for any FED support.


JQ

5,238 posts

166 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Catastrophic Poo said:
Timothy Bucktu said:
Neil McCoy-Ward talked about this here https://youtu.be/u2BtAJrvHqM

Note: He's a little too direct and to the point for some on PH to be able to handle I suspect. But he has some interesting insights into the financial world. Take it with a pinch of salt and come to your own conclusions.
He does have somewhat fringe views, and said there would be a 40% drop in property values 3 years ago.

Sells courses though, so thats a thing biggrin
I've not watched the video, so he could be talking residential values, but prime industrial property values in the UK dropped 40% last year which impacted plenty of pension funds and REITs.

markbigears

2,051 posts

256 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
I enjoyed his videos until this one a few days ago. I’m not sure what to think of him now


Bluequay

1,770 posts

205 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
Not credit Suisse but Silicon Valley Bank share price fell 61% yesterday a fall in mkt cap of 81bn in 1 day. Makes the bank bailouts in the UK seem tiny. An SVB have not asked for any FED support.
A banks share price and it's solvency are not necessarily related.

pquinn

5,638 posts

33 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
Not credit Suisse but Silicon Valley Bank share price fell 61% yesterday a fall in mkt cap of 81bn in 1 day. Makes the bank bailouts in the UK seem tiny. An SVB have not asked for any FED support.
People will look at SVB after the fact and spot all the red flags that should have been obvious all along. Just looking at the customers they get involved with and their relationships with them sets off alarms.

Credit Suisse has been a slow motion trainwreck for years.

Edited by pquinn on Friday 10th March 11:54

pquinn

5,638 posts

33 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Bluequay said:
Gecko1978 said:
Not credit Suisse but Silicon Valley Bank share price fell 61% yesterday a fall in mkt cap of 81bn in 1 day. Makes the bank bailouts in the UK seem tiny. An SVB have not asked for any FED support.
A banks share price and it's solvency are not necessarily related.
They are when a run starts like it did with SVB.

Newc

1,642 posts

169 months

Friday 10th March
quotequote all
Carl_Manchester said:
If it does go pop, the implications will be far-reaching, not least for London.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/art...
Debit Suisse has been limping along on crutches for a long time. Its likely demise is priced in and its trading counterparties will be fully hedged for a default. Nobody would really care, or indeed notice, if it closed its doors over the weekend.