RE: Final EU vote on 2035 engine phaseout delayed
Discussion
ITP said:
What I’m saying is with EV’s there most likely won’t be any ‘cheap’ 2nd hand cars in the future. Sure the Kia may still have a 200 mile range after 10 years but it will probably be 10k. Or else the tech will be so far out of date it will be rendered worthless. Plus because they are packed with electronic tech no doubt if anything breaks the cost to fix will be so prohibitive, even if the parts are still made, that the car will be scrap. It’s pretty easy and cheap to fix old simple ICE cars.
Last car I scrapped was because it wasn't worth fixing the diesel injectors.A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
ITP said:
Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
Many (most?) young adults born this millennium are not interested in cars or driving...ITP said:
SpeckledJim said:
ITP said:
GT9 said:
Strangely Brown said:
"...a very real issue facing today's motorists - the increasingly large divide between those who can afford a NEW CAR and those who cannot. Are NEW CARS a realistic and practical solution for all?"
FTFYTry writing it out 50 times, I find it helps:
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
.....
Trouble is, a 10 year old leaf, can be classed as a family car no problem, is still 4-5k. Affordable to many more of course. However, a 10 year old leaf has a range of about 50 miles, so it’s virtually useless.
Even 5k is a stretch for many of the poorest in society, who run about in 1-3k fords/Vauxhall etc. plus these will still do 300-400 miles range of course….
It comes back to the (too fast) rush to EV’s effectively pricing less well off people out of being able to have private transportation at all. As their older fords/Vauxhalls etc will be increasingly, punitively taxed off the road via euro 5/6/7 increments for charge zones, with the second hand old EV’s, as above, being useless range wise.
Maybe they could buy a newer petrol car, a euro 5 you may say. That’s great, as fairly soon this will be taxed heavily too when euro 6 is made minimum for charge zones. They have to sell again, losing more money.
But I guess this is another conversation about forcing some elements of society out of cars altogether, which increasingly appears to be the chose path.
How much does a 2023 Kia Niro with a range of 300 miles cost in 2038?
If they sell 100,000 Kia Niros in 2023 does that make any difference to the 2038 price, compared to a situation where they only sell 1,000?
If you want to see people enjoying cheap used cars in the future (as I do), then you also want to see a huge number of them selling new right now.
Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
SpeckledJim said:
ITP said:
SpeckledJim said:
ITP said:
GT9 said:
Strangely Brown said:
"...a very real issue facing today's motorists - the increasingly large divide between those who can afford a NEW CAR and those who cannot. Are NEW CARS a realistic and practical solution for all?"
FTFYTry writing it out 50 times, I find it helps:
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
Only new car buyers can make second hand cars.
.....
Trouble is, a 10 year old leaf, can be classed as a family car no problem, is still 4-5k. Affordable to many more of course. However, a 10 year old leaf has a range of about 50 miles, so it’s virtually useless.
Even 5k is a stretch for many of the poorest in society, who run about in 1-3k fords/Vauxhall etc. plus these will still do 300-400 miles range of course….
It comes back to the (too fast) rush to EV’s effectively pricing less well off people out of being able to have private transportation at all. As their older fords/Vauxhalls etc will be increasingly, punitively taxed off the road via euro 5/6/7 increments for charge zones, with the second hand old EV’s, as above, being useless range wise.
Maybe they could buy a newer petrol car, a euro 5 you may say. That’s great, as fairly soon this will be taxed heavily too when euro 6 is made minimum for charge zones. They have to sell again, losing more money.
But I guess this is another conversation about forcing some elements of society out of cars altogether, which increasingly appears to be the chose path.
How much does a 2023 Kia Niro with a range of 300 miles cost in 2038?
If they sell 100,000 Kia Niros in 2023 does that make any difference to the 2038 price, compared to a situation where they only sell 1,000?
If you want to see people enjoying cheap used cars in the future (as I do), then you also want to see a huge number of them selling new right now.
Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
havoc said:
Science doesn't care whether you believe it or not, or whether you want to believe it. Science is there to model the facts 'on the ground' and explain what's causing things.
(s
t, I'm starting to sound like GT9! 
)
My work here is nearly done.(s
t, I'm starting to sound like GT9! )A couple more years, and I'll hang up my boots.
SpeckledJim said:
This is great. A confident prediction that they'll either be too expensive, or too cheap, but definitely not 'just right'. The aGoldilocks Zone
The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
High residual value of their batteries will drive up the price of used EVs.The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
otolith said:
ITP said:
What I’m saying is with EV’s there most likely won’t be any ‘cheap’ 2nd hand cars in the future. Sure the Kia may still have a 200 mile range after 10 years but it will probably be 10k. Or else the tech will be so far out of date it will be rendered worthless. Plus because they are packed with electronic tech no doubt if anything breaks the cost to fix will be so prohibitive, even if the parts are still made, that the car will be scrap. It’s pretty easy and cheap to fix old simple ICE cars.
Last car I scrapped was because it wasn't worth fixing the diesel injectors.A modern ICE car is a much more complicated machine, with much more electronics, than a modern electric car. A modern engine is an electromechanical device, not something running on carbs and distributors.
bigothunter said:
SpeckledJim said:
This is great. A confident prediction that they'll either be too expensive, or too cheap, but definitely not 'just right'. The aGoldilocks Zone
The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
High residual value of their batteries will drive up the price of used EVs.The forces that drive us Brits to order many more new cars than we really need - which is the reason our used cars are so cheap - aren't going away when an ICE becomes an EV.
We're still going to need to keep up with the Joneses. Whether the Joneses have an X5 or a Model X isn't important.
We're still going to hand millions of new company cars to people who live a mile from the office (and work from home anyway).
If 100,000 Kia Niros hit the roads today, in 15 years they'll be cheap.
And largely-unwanted ICE in reasonable condition are going to be around for another 30 years.
ITP said:
They are more complicated, but I’m guessing the biggest issue with EV’s will be the software support as they become old. If the manufacturer decides to stop supporting that the car is a paper weight. Think iPhone. Sorry, we don’t support this software anymore’. New phone (in this case car) required.
Will it stop working?SpeckledJim said:
No question. But that works both ways. You might need to find a bit more on the way in, but you'll get more on the way out. And you'll spend less on maintaining and fixing it.
And largely-unwanted ICE in reasonable condition are going to be around for another 30 years.
I have an image of clapped-out scrap EVs sprouting cables coupled to the grid for self-generated wind/solar energy storage and transfer.And largely-unwanted ICE in reasonable condition are going to be around for another 30 years.
Could be a common sight in 10 years
911hope said:
ITP said:
They are more complicated, but I’m guessing the biggest issue with EV’s will be the software support as they become old. If the manufacturer decides to stop supporting that the car is a paper weight. Think iPhone. Sorry, we don’t support this software anymore’. New phone (in this case car) required.
Will it stop working?We’ll revisit this thread in 15 years and see if there’s thousands of £5k Kia Nero’s on ‘ev-trader’ that are available for reliable, cheap runabouts.
ITP said:
Think iPhone. Sorry, we don’t support this software anymore’. New phone (in this case car) required.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InEnWwzCxcw
ITP said:
Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
But having said that, I hope you are right, and there is an abundance of cheap secondhand EV’s that still have a good range and are still cheap to run at 10 years old. We’ll see.
I suspect you're right...but sadly even a lot of ICE cars aren't cheap to fix anymore - too many electronics controlling the engine, too many hoops to jump through for emissions, too much complexity (electronics again) in the cabin, including touch-screen controls for everything.But having said that, I hope you are right, and there is an abundance of cheap secondhand EV’s that still have a good range and are still cheap to run at 10 years old. We’ll see.
Going back to what "they" want - denial of personal private transport is one thing in London/Manc/Birmingham etc. where decent public transport links exist, but it's a massively different thing in suburbia, where the last bus is probably 7pm and they're once an hour anyway. And trebly so in the villages and the wilds of the UK. Where the nearest school may be 4 or 5 miles away, the nearest doctor may be further still, and heaven help you if you actually want to go to work...
In short - it's not going to work. There will HAVE to be a work-around somewhere. It'll probably be keeping old ICE machines running far longer than they should, with non-essential tech ignored or bypassed, and flexible MOT testers understanding what the spirit of the legislation really means. Either that or it'll see the death of small villages* as the poorer working families can no longer manage live there, leaving it for the few wealthy people, the retired people who have others who can help them, and those lucky few who don't need 4-wheeled transport.
* OK, not in the wealthy areas like the Cotswolds, but in the real world like Yorkshire, mid-Wales, Scotland, Lincolnshire...
bigothunter said:
Many (most?) young adults born this millennium are not interested in cars or driving...
In the cities maybe. Look at those in the villages where they need transport to get to college / get to work. Or in the towns where if there's no-one to drive you, you can't afford to go out to the bigger towns and cities where the nightlife is. (Last train back here from Birmingham is ridiculously early at a weekend, for example, even worse from the nearest town with a nightclub)
SpeckledJim said:
This is great. A confident prediction that they'll either be too expensive, or too cheap, but definitely not 'just right'. The aGoldilocks Zone
Happens to a lot of cars already.Look at older exec machines - they've either had tens of thousands spent keeping everything working, so still cost 5-figures easy, or they're obviously unloved so are being flogged for a few grand, with the proviso that they're one MOT fail away from a BIG bill.
With BEVs, you're right that the complexity is lower, which means as long as the battery pack is functional, it's just the same electronic issues as plague modern machines when they get older. But a duff battery pack WILL be a very big bill. So a functioning BEV will sit at several grand minimum*, while a BEV with a fubar'd battery will be essentially worthless.
* Supply and demand. While ICEs are available, BEVs will offer much cheaper motoring and access to city centres that will gradually be denied to ICEs. So they'll carry a premium. Once ICEs are waning (rust, borkage, etc.), the market supply of BEVs will be a lot greater so price SHOULD come down, but as per the above comment I can see there being this window where people spend a few grand on a very-used BEV which is effectively a gamble on how long it runs for, and which (unlike cars from the 00s and prior) they can't fix themselves.
A fubar'd battery still has worth because it can be recycled.
Maybe the UK will simply be aligned more to the vast majority of countries where used car values are higher than here. It doesn't mean the actual cost of ownership is any higher though, just that more capital is tied up in a vehicle (or heaven forbid that some people have to drive more modest cars than they do today).
There are not going to be swathes of the UK population stuck in villages with no means of getting around.
Maybe the UK will simply be aligned more to the vast majority of countries where used car values are higher than here. It doesn't mean the actual cost of ownership is any higher though, just that more capital is tied up in a vehicle (or heaven forbid that some people have to drive more modest cars than they do today).
There are not going to be swathes of the UK population stuck in villages with no means of getting around.
ITP said:
What I’m saying is with EV’s there most likely won’t be any ‘cheap’ 2nd hand cars in the future. Sure the Kia may still have a 200 mile range after 10 years but it will probably be 10k. Or else the tech will be so far out of date it will be rendered worthless. Plus because they are packed with electronic tech no doubt if anything breaks the cost to fix will be so prohibitive, even if the parts are still made, that the car will be scrap. It’s pretty easy and cheap to fix old simple ICE cars.
Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
But having said that, I hope you are right, and there is an abundance of cheap secondhand EV’s that still have a good range and are still cheap to run at 10 years old. We’ll see.
The residual, terminal value of an EV should be much higher than for an ICE due to the value of the components that can be recovered. Like I said, the less well off and young will be effectively denied personal private transport once all the old fiestas and the like have fallen apart. Unless of course they are taxed off the road sooner with blanket ‘low emission zone’ cameras of course. I’m guessing that will get them first actually. But maybe by then all kids will have been brainwashed into thinking those personal freedoms are ‘bad’ for the planet somehow anyway and they won’t want a cheap runabout when they turn 17.
But having said that, I hope you are right, and there is an abundance of cheap secondhand EV’s that still have a good range and are still cheap to run at 10 years old. We’ll see.
Edited by ITP on Thursday 23 March 15:38
People will have to get used to that change but don't forget like a £500 ICE shed remains worth £500 once at the bottom of its depreciation so the EV will remain static at its floor price so the money isn't lost just transferred and can be transferred back. What is different is that one day the ICE will stop working and simply leap to a negative value due to the cost of disposal or worse a simple component could stop working and it's replacement exceed the value of the vehicle taking it to zero whereas with an EV that value remains when it comes time to scrap due to the motor and battery but with fewer working parts the risk of component failure killing the car is significantly reduced.
What's important to appreciate is that an RV is not an ICE. They are two different products that do the same thing and they will have different depreciation curves and different terminal values. As such the finance industry will price the lending structures differently.
bigothunter said:
And to the government. It removes pressure to sort out our failing road network.
...
Funny you should say that, I was in the UK a couple of weeks back and I couldn't believe the physical state of the roads off the main A/M roads. Potholes so big there were literally offroad paths around them on the verges. More in keeping with South East Asia than Northamptonshire....
ITP said:
They are more complicated, but I’m guessing the biggest issue with EV’s will be the software support as they become old. If the manufacturer decides to stop supporting that the car is a paper weight. Think iPhone. Sorry, we don’t support this software anymore’. New phone (in this case car) required.
Why would that be an EV thing rather than an ICE thing? An EV needs less complicated software than an ICE.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff